Southeast Real Estate Business

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COVER STORY, AUGUST 2010 FLORIDA RETAIL UPDATE The industry hopes better times are around the corner. Lindsay Sport Last year, the retail market was full of uncertainty. 2009 saw buzzwords such as economic downturn, recession, distressed and foreclosure become common staples in conversation. Florida’s retail market was no exception as industry players hunkered down to ride out the storm. No one expected a full recovery by 2010, but Florida’s retail environment is beginning to see some growth. “In 2009, overall retail sales hit bottom. Since that time, sales in many retail categories are experiencing a slight upswing as consumers return to traditional retail outlets for basic goods and services,” says John Dottore, operating partner of The Shopping Center Group’s Longwood, Florida office. And while Florida’s retail market is still coping with the effects of the economic fallout, its markets are seemingly beginning to stabilize. “I believe that retail has begun to turn a corner from more and more bankruptcies to a more balanced status quo,” says Gary Montour, vice president of Jacksonville, Florida-based Colliers Dickinson. “This does not mean that people are expecting huge gains in sales. It does mean they are a little optimistic that they can get through the next couple of years, which will still be difficult for the small businessman.” Like many other markets nationwide, however, the retail market in Florida is far from recovered. According to Dottore, gross sales tax revenues in every major Florida MSA have plummeted from peak levels and currently hover at 2005 and 2006 levels. Many retailers are thriving, but at the expense of other retailers rather than due to an expansion of total retail sales. Despite different market challenges, the outlook that’s spreading across the Sunshine State is one of perseverance, hope and confidence. “The future is always bright in Florida,” says Dottore. “This is not our first economic downturn, and a rebound is imminent.” Tenancy And The Changing Market The retail markets around Florida have seen varied reactions to the current economic climate. Some are seeing slight growth, while others are experiencing slight decline, but overall markets have remained somewhat leveled out in 2010. Some of the most stable markets, says Dottore, have been Gainesville and Lakeland. In 2009, Gainesville’s retail sales were at record levels, with the Lakeland market showing retail sales just slightly off peak levels. “These markets have stable employment bases that were not heavily reliant upon tourism and real estate, and therefore, were spared from the unsustainable surge in speculative real estate development that marred other major markets and coastal communities,” Dottore says. In Tampa, the markets are relatively stagnant, but some retail players are beginning to see a slight resurgence of activity. Susie Rice, president of RMC Property Group based in Tampa, says RMC has seen an increase in the market for 2010. “The retail market in the Tampa area has been active for RMC in the first half of 2010,” says Rice. “RMC’s leasing activity for 2010 is on track to absorb 32 percent of the existing vacancies.

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