The Fantasy Football Guys

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Note: The following isn’t your average list. Anyone can tell you that Donald Brown or Knowshon Moreno is a sleeper, or that LT is on his way out. In the following article I dig deep to find the unpopular choices that could make or break your draft. Overvalued: Let someone else draft these guys. Larry Fitzgerald WR, ARI (ADP-1.07): Anquan Boldin being in camp could spell lesser numbers for Fitz. When the two played during the regular season last year, Boldin caught 13 more passes and scored nearly twice as many TDs. Couple this with the fact that the Cardinals will likely pass less often this season (they threw the ball more last year than any other team, their receivers caught more passes than any team since 1995, and they drafted a bruising RB with their #1 pick), and it’s hard to see him putting up the dominating numbers of late 2008. Still, I’m not pushing Fitz’s value down too much, but drafting him #1 at WR seems too steep considering similar value might be found a round later. Michael Turner RB, ATL (ADP-1.04): Turner is no doubt one of the best backs in the league, but there are a few factors suggesting he is overvalued in most leagues. He carried the ball a league high 376 times last year. Even coach Mike Smith said “We know he can’t sustain 370 carries over a number of years, we have to reduce the load we put on him last year”. He’s also not much of a pass catcher. Turner had only 6 catches for 41 yards last season. Sounds to me like Jerious Norwood could see more playing time as relief and play 90% of passing downs. Tony Romo QB, DAL (ADP-5.05): Only Jon Kitna has turned the ball over more in the last 2 years and he just lost one of his best weapons. I don’t see Romo being anywhere near the top 10 for QBs this season. Lee Evans WR, BUF (ADP-6.09): This might seem obvious given the addition of Terrell Owens, and Evans’ lack luster performance the past few years. But, I think even the late 6th round is too much to pay for Mr. Evans. Only one time in the last eight years has a WR playing on the other side of Owens totaled more than 800 yards, none have scored more than 7 TDs. Undervalued: These unsung heroes could be the key to your draft. Pierre Thomas RB, NO (ADP-3.11): Maybe not in a PPR, but in a standard scoring league, Thomas should be selected before Reggie Bush (ADP-2.09). Thomas is bigger, more physical back, who will likely steal most of the goal-line carries. Add this to the fact that Bush’s knee isn’t 100% and has been a bit injury prone, and it’s an easy call to move Thomas ahead of him on my board. Jamaal Charles RB, KC (ADP-12.09): While Larry Johnson has the starting gig locked down, he has had some injury and off the field problems lately. Charles is younger, much faster, and a far better receiver. It’s likely he will see significant playing time, even if Johnson is healthy. A late round flier on him could pay dividends if LJ continues his slide. Domenik Hixon WR, NYG (ADP-11.11): Steve Smith is more of a slot receiver and 1st round selection Hakeem Nicks will need time to develop. That makes Hixon the #1 guy in New York by default. While I don’t expect to see Plaxico-type numbers from him.

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